Following the Venice and Toronto Film Festivals, two new leaders have taken shape: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri and The Shape of Water. Right now, it looks like the race could come down to those two, but we’ll see how the rest of the year takes shape.
Phantom Thread, Downsizing, and The Post are three films that have yet to be released anywhere, but with names like Paul Thomas Anderson, Alexander Payne, and Stephen Spielberg helming, I’d be very surprised if the didn’t end up with a nomination. Same goes for Darkest Hour, which is going to have Gary Oldman’s performance driving it to the top. Joe Wright directing certainly helps too.
Right now, those are the only films I consider guaranteed for an Oscar nomination. The most likely to fill out the last four spots are Mudbound, Molly’s Game, Blade Runner 2049, and I, Tonya. Blade Runner 2049 is a bit of a risky bet, but the film was of such a high quality and Denis Villenueve is on good terms with the Academy right now, I think a nomination is very likely. I, Tonya is the newest arrival to the race, but from the early reviews and the extra drive of Margot Robbie’s performance, the chances are look good.
There’s still plenty of films looking to sneak in. The Disaster Artist has gotten a lot of praise and Last Flag Flying looks to be exactly what Richard Linklater does best. Detroit was a fantastic film that I hope can get recognition. Call Me By Your Name could make a nice indie drive as could Greta Gerwig’s directorial debut, Lady Bird. And finally, Dunkirk and mother! are both early releases from skilled filmmakers that split opinions upon reception, so we’ll see how those mixed reviews translate come awards season.
Updated 23 October, 2017
Next in Line:
Still in it:
Also in the Race:
Mark Felt: The Man Who Brought Down the White House
Okja Wind River Only the Brave
The Death of Stalin Thank You for Your Service A Ghost Story Good Time
Hostiles The Snowman Red Sparrow War for the Planet of the Apes
Star Wars: Episode VIII – The Last Jedi
Mary Shelley Wildlife
How to Talk to Girls at Parties Coco Tulip Fever
Happy End Euphoria Mute