Best Picture

Following the Venice and Toronto Film Festivals, two new leaders have taken shape: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri and The Shape of Water. Right now, it looks like the race could come down to those two, but we’ll see how the rest of the year takes shape.

Phantom Thread, Downsizing, and The Post are three films that have yet to be released anywhere, but with names like Paul Thomas Anderson, Alexander Payne, and Stephen Spielberg helming, I’d be very surprised if the didn’t end up with a nomination. Same goes for Darkest Hour, which is going to have Gary Oldman’s performance driving it to the top. Joe Wright directing certainly helps too.

Right now, those are the only films I consider guaranteed for an Oscar nomination. The most likely to fill out the last four spots are Mudbound, Molly’s Game, Blade Runner 2049, and I, Tonya. Blade Runner 2049 is a bit of a risky bet, but the film was of such a high quality and Denis Villenueve is on good terms with the Academy right now, I think a nomination is very likely. I, Tonya is the newest arrival to the race, but from the early reviews and the extra drive of Margot Robbie’s performance, the chances are look good.

There’s still plenty of films looking to sneak in. The Disaster Artist has gotten a lot of praise and Last Flag Flying looks to be exactly what Richard Linklater does best. Detroit was a fantastic film that I hope can get recognition. Call Me By Your Name could make a nice indie drive as could Greta Gerwig’s directorial debut, Lady Bird. And finally, Dunkirk and mother! are both early releases from skilled filmmakers that split opinions upon reception, so we’ll see how those mixed reviews translate come awards season.

Updated 23 October, 2017


Frontrunners:

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri         The Shape of Water

 Phantom Thread          Darkest Hour         Downsizing         The Post

 Mudbound         Molly’s Game          Blade Runner 2049         I, Tonya

Next in Line:

 The Disaster Artist         Last Flag Flying

 Detroit           Mother!         Call Me By Your Name 

Still in it:

Dunkirk         Lady Bird         Murder on the Orient Express         Suburbicon

Battle of the Sexes          The Beguiled          Wonderstruck

The Meyerowitz Stories (New and Selected)          Stronger

All the Money in the World

Also in the Race:

 Marshall          The Glass Castle         Goodbye Christopher Robin         The Current War 

You Were Never Really Here         The Big Sick             Breathe          The Greatest Showman

The Killing of a Sacred Deer             American Made          Victoria and Abdul

The Florida Project          Baby Driver

Mark Felt: The Man Who Brought Down the White House

Wonder Wheel          Wonder          Under the Silver Lake         LBJ

 Okja          Wind River         Only the Brave

The Death of Stalin         Thank You for Your Service          A Ghost Story          Good Time

 Hostiles          The Snowman          Red Sparrow          War for the Planet of the Apes

Star Wars: Episode VIII – The Last Jedi

Mary Shelley          Wildlife

How to Talk to Girls at Parties         Coco           Tulip Fever

Happy End          Euphoria          Mute


 

Best Picture | Best Director | Best Actor in a Leading Role | Best Actress in a Leading Role

Best Actor in a Supporting Role | Best Actress in a Supporting Role | Best Adapted Screenplay | Best Original Screenplay

Best Animated Film | Best Cinematography | Best Production Design | Best Costume Design

Best Makeup and Hairstyling | Best Original Song | Best Original Score 

Best Film Editing | Best Sound Mixing | Best Sound Editing | Best Visual Effects

Best Documentary Feature | Best Foreign Language Film

Best Documentary, Short Subject | Best Short Film, Animated | Best Short Film, Live Action