The top two films in the Best Picture race right now are The Shape of Water and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. I’m confident that this will translate to a directing nomination for Guillermo Del Toro, however Three Billboards will likely be more focused on Martin McDonagh’s writing than his acting. I think it’s probably safe to say both will be nominated.
The next two likely nominees are Alexander Payne for DOwnsizing and Paul Thomas Anderson for Phantom Thread. Payne hasn’t missed a directing nominations in years, so I don’t expect DOwnsizing to be any different. PTA is less consistent with the noms, but I expect Phantom Thread to be a consistent all around nominee, which should translate to a nom here. Same goes for Darkest Hour, so I suspect Joe Wright will land a nomination as well.
That’s five, but there’s a whole lot of competition still trying to get in. Steven Spielberg has The Post, Denis Villeneuve has Blade Runner 2049, and Aaron Sorkin has his directorial debut with Molly’s Game. Also need to keep an eye on the leser-known names like Dee Rees for Mudbound, Craig Gillepsie for I, Tonya, and Greta Gerwig with her diectorial debut, Lady Bird.
We have five frontrunners, but the competition is still very thick.
Updated October 22nd, 2017
Next in Line:
Still in it:
Also in the Race:
Peter Landesman – Mark Felt: The Man Who Brought Down the White House Woody Allen – Wonder Wheel
David Robert Mitchell – Under the Silver Lake Stephen Soderbergh – Logan Lucky
Bong Joon Ho – Okja Taylor Sheridan – Wind River Joseph Kosinski – Only the Brave
Armando Iannucci – The Death of Stalin Jason Hall – Thank You for Your Service
David Lowery – A Ghost Story Ben and Joshua Safdie – Good Time
Tomas Alfredson – The Snowman Francis Lawrence – Red Sparrow
Haifaa Al-Mansour – Mary Shelly Paul Dano – Wildlife
Jordan Cameron Mitchell – How to Talk to Girls at Parties Justin Chadwick – Tulip Fever
Michael Haneke – Happy End Lisa Langseth – Euphoria Duncan Jones – Mute