Best Actor in a Leading Role

There are two very clear frontrunners, which I suspect is going to be the case all the way to the end. Gary Oldman has a very transformative performance as Winston Churchill in Darkest Hour which many are saying will be his first win. His competition is Daniel Day-Lewis, who is supposedly giving his final acting performance with Phantom Thread. From the trailer, Day-Lewis’ role doesn’t look as juicy as Oldman’s, but it is Daniel Day-Lewis, who could win an Oscar for a McDonald’s commercial.

Jake Gyllenhaal in Stronger is the only outsider with any chance of competing with those two, but it’d would be a surprise if he even entered the conversation. A nomination is guaranteed. And the reason it’s guaranteed is because the Best Actor competition is really thin this year. After Gyllenhaal, James Franco look good for a nom playing Tommy Wiseau in The Disaster Artist, and Steve Carell could go for his second nomination with Last Flag Flying. 

Otherwise Matt Damon in Downsizing, Denzel Washington in Roman J. Israel Esq., Tom Hanks in The Post, and Andrew Garfield in Breathe are the only other legitimate competition.

Updated 22 October, 2017


Frontrunners:

Daniel Day-Lewis – Phantom Thread          Gary Oldman – Darkest Hour

Jake Gyllenhaal – Stronger           James Franco – The Disaster Artist         Steve Carell – Last Flag Flying

Next in Line:

Matt Damon – Downsizing          Tom Hanks – The Post         Denzel Washington – Roman J. Israel Esq.

Still in it:

 Andrew Garfield – Breathe            Chadwick Boseman – Marshall           Benedict Cumberbatch – The Current War

Domhnall Gleeson – Goodbye Christopher Robin         Kevin Spacey – All the Money in the World

Also in the Race:

 Matt Damon – Suburbicon          Joaquin Phoenix – You Were Never Really Here

Kenneth Branagh – Murder on the Orient Express          John Boyega – Detroit         Woody Harrelson – LBJ

Tom Cruise – American Made          Robert Pattinson – Good Time          Donald Sutherland – The Leisure Seeker

Miles Teller – Thank You for Your Service           Hugh Jackman – The Greatest Showman

Liam Neeson – Mark Felt: The Man Who Brought Down the White House          Jacob Tremblay – Wonder

Christian Bale – Hostiles          Jeremy Renner – Wind River

Andy Serkis – War for the Planet of the Apes          Andrew Garfield – Under the Silver Lake

Miles Teller – Only the Brave          Jason Mithcell – Mudbound

Jean-Louis Trintignant – Happy End          Justin Theroux – Mute


Best Picture | Best Director | Best Actor in a Leading Role | Best Actress in a Leading Role

Best Actor in a Supporting Role | Best Actress in a Supporting Role | Best Adapted Screenplay | Best Original Screenplay

Best Animated Film | Best Cinematography | Best Production Design | Best Costume Design

Best Makeup and Hairstyling | Best Original Song | Best Original Score 

Best Film Editing | Best Sound Mixing | Best Sound Editing | Best Visual Effects

Best Documentary Feature | Best Foreign Language Film

Best Documentary, Short Subject | Best Short Film, Animated | Best Short Film, Live Action