There are two very clear frontrunners, which I suspect is going to be the case all the way to the end. Gary Oldman has a very transformative performance as Winston Churchill in Darkest Hour which many are saying will be his first win. His competition is Daniel Day-Lewis, who is supposedly giving his final acting performance with Phantom Thread. From the trailer, Day-Lewis’ role doesn’t look as juicy as Oldman’s, but it is Daniel Day-Lewis, who could win an Oscar for a McDonald’s commercial.
Jake Gyllenhaal in Stronger is the only outsider with any chance of competing with those two, but it’d would be a surprise if he even entered the conversation. A nomination is guaranteed. And the reason it’s guaranteed is because the Best Actor competition is really thin this year. After Gyllenhaal, James Franco look good for a nom playing Tommy Wiseau in The Disaster Artist, and Steve Carell could go for his second nomination with Last Flag Flying.
Otherwise Matt Damon in Downsizing, Denzel Washington in Roman J. Israel Esq., Tom Hanks in The Post, and Andrew Garfield in Breathe are the only other legitimate competition.
Updated 22 October, 2017
Next in Line:
Still in it:
Also in the Race:
Tom Cruise – American Made Robert Pattinson – Good Time Donald Sutherland – The Leisure Seeker
Miles Teller – Thank You for Your Service Hugh Jackman – The Greatest Showman
Liam Neeson – Mark Felt: The Man Who Brought Down the White House Jacob Tremblay – Wonder
Christian Bale – Hostiles Jeremy Renner – Wind River
Andy Serkis – War for the Planet of the Apes Andrew Garfield – Under the Silver Lake
Miles Teller – Only the Brave Jason Mithcell – Mudbound
Jean-Louis Trintignant – Happy End Justin Theroux – Mute